A palpable energy is coursing through the tech markets, but it's pulling in two distinct directions. On one hand, the IPO market, dormant for years, has roared back to life with successful listings from companies like Klarna. On the other, the relentless AI narrative continues to reshape the industry, crowning new kings like Replit while forcing incumbents like Apple and Adobe into a defensive posture. This is the story of the great tech divide of 2025.
The Return of the IPO: Confidence is Back
After a prolonged drought, a hot IPO market is a clear sign that investor appetite for new public companies has returned. The recent success of European fintech giant Klarna is a testament to this shift.
- A Windfall Success: Klarna's IPO was a massive win for early investors like Sequoia, which turned a $500 million investment into a $2.7 billion windfall.
- Beyond "Buy Now, Pay Later": The listing is a strategic move for Klarna to rebrand itself as a global, all-in-one financial app, with the US as its largest market.
- Paving the Way: Klarna's success is a beacon for other private tech behemoths like Revolut, proving that the public markets are once again receptive to compelling growth stories outside of the pure AI space.
Following Klarna, blockchain-based lender Figure also went public, aiming to become one of the "Magnificent 7 of Web 3.0" by tokenizing real-world assets and creating new liquidity in financial markets.
The Software Conundrum: Incumbents Under Pressure
While new players celebrate their public debuts, some of the most established software giants are feeling the heat from the AI revolution.
Apple is facing a wave of analyst downgrades and investor skepticism. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reports that while the new iPhone lineup may not seem revolutionary, Apple is strategically preparing consumers for the era of the $2,000 iPhone. This price creep will be driven by future tariffs, the high cost of foldable technology, and advanced designs.
Meanwhile, Adobe's stock has plummeted 40% over the past year. Despite integrating AI features like Firefly across its creative suite, the company has failed to convince investors that these additions can translate into significant revenue growth or fend off competition from nimble, AI-native upstarts.
The Rise of the AI Natives: Explosive Growth and "Vibe Coding"
The other side of the tech divide is populated by companies built for the AI era. Replit, an AI coding startup, exemplifies this new wave.
"Today with AI you can conjure up software by merely speaking them and that's a really magical feeling." - Amjad Masad, Replit CEO
Replit's valuation recently tripled to $3 billion after a new funding round. Its success is built on the concept of "Vibe Coding," an intuitive approach where anyone—from product managers to finance professionals—can build software using natural language. This has led to astonishing growth, with its annual recurring revenue (ARR) skyrocketing from $3 million to $150 million in roughly a year after launching its AI agent.
Similarly, Box CEO Aaron Levy is steering his company to capitalize on the AI wave by launching a suite of agentic tools. His philosophy is one of constant adaptation, driven by a powerful question:
"What would our company do if we started from scratch in 2025?"
This mindset highlights the existential threat and immense opportunity that AI presents. Companies that can harness AI to unlock value from data, as Box aims to do with unstructured enterprise data, are positioning themselves to thrive. The market is sending a clear signal: adapt to the AI reality, or risk being disrupted by those who do.
标题： IPO狂热与AI现实交织：Klarna、Replit与科技行业的巨大分水岭
摘要： 随着金融科技巨头 Klarna 和区块链贷款公司 Figure 的上市，IPO 市场正强势回归，预示着投资者信心的复苏。与此同时，像 Replit 这样的 AI 初创公司正实现爆炸性增长并获得巨额估值。本文将剖析这一现象如何造成一个巨大的分水岭，迫使苹果和 Adobe 等老牌巨头要么适应，要么被时代抛在后面。
内容：
一股显而易见的能量正贯穿整个科技市场，但它正朝着两个截然不同的方向发展。一方面，沉寂多年的 IPO 市场随着 Klarna 等公司的成功上市而强势回归。另一方面，势不可挡的 AI 叙事继续重塑着整个行业，为 Replit 这样的新王加冕，同时迫使苹果（Apple）和 Adobe 等老牌巨头采取守势。这就是 2025 年科技行业巨大分水岭的故事。
IPO 的回归：信心重燃
在经历了长时间的低谷之后，一个火热的 IPO 市场是投资者对新上市公司胃口回归的明确信号。欧洲金融科技巨头 Klarna 近期的成功上市证明了这一转变。
- 一场大获全胜的成功： Klarna 的 IPO 对红杉资本等早期投资者来说是一次巨大的胜利，他们将 5 亿美元的投资变成了 27 亿美元的巨额回报。
- 超越“先买后付”： 上市是 Klarna 的一项战略举措，旨在将自己重塑为一个全球性的一站式金融应用，并以美国为其最大市场。
- 铺平道路： Klarna 的成功为 Revolut 等其他私营科技巨头点亮了前行的灯塔，证明了公开市场再次对纯 AI 领域之外的引人注目的增长故事持开放态度。
紧随 Klarna 之后，基于区块链的贷款公司 Figure 也成功上市，其目标是通过将现实世界资产代币化并在金融市场中创造新的流动性，成为“Web 3.0 时代的科技七巨头”之一。
软件行业的困境：老牌巨头面临压力
当新玩家庆祝其公开亮相时，一些最老牌的软件巨头却感受到了来自 AI 革命的巨大压力。
苹果公司正面临一波分析师的降级潮和投资者的怀疑情绪。据彭博社的 Mark Gurman 报道，尽管新款 iPhone 阵容看似缺乏革命性，但苹果正在战略性地让消费者为 “2000 美元 iPhone 时代” 的到来做好心理准备。未来的价格上涨将由潜在的关税、折叠屏技术的高昂成本以及更先进的设计所驱动。
与此同时，Adobe 的股价在过去一年中暴跌了 40%。尽管在其创意套件中集成了像 Firefly 这样的 AI 功能，但该公司未能说服投资者相信这些新增功能能够转化为显著的收入增长，或抵御来自灵活的 AI 原生初创公司的竞争。
AI 原生代的崛起：爆炸性增长与“Vibe编程”
科技行业分水岭的另一边，是由为 AI 时代而生的公司所占据。AI 编程初创公司 Replit 正是这股新浪潮的典范。
“今天有了 AI，你只需通过口述就能创造出软件，这真是一种神奇的感觉。” —— Amjad Masad, Replit CEO
Replit 的估值在最新一轮融资后增长了两倍，达到了 30 亿美元。其成功建立在 “Vibe 编程” 的概念之上，这是一种直观的方法，让任何人——从产品经理到金融专业人士——都可以使用自然语言来构建软件。这带来了惊人的增长，其年经常性收入（ARR）在推出 AI 代理后的大约一年内，从 300 万美元飙升至 1.5 亿美元。
同样，Box 的 CEO Aaron Levy 正在通过推出一套代理工具来引导他的公司抓住 AI 的浪潮。他的经营哲学是不断适应，其核心动力源于一个强有力的问题：
“如果我们公司是在 2025 年从零开始，我们会怎么做？”
这种思维方式凸显了 AI 所带来的生存威胁和巨大机遇。那些能够利用 AI 从数据中释放价值的公司，正如 Box 旨在通过非结构化企业数据实现的目标一样，正在为未来的蓬勃发展做好准备。市场正在发出一个明确的信号：要么适应 AI 的现实，要么就面临被颠覆的风险。